Joost Hiltermann

The Path to Regional War

For more than nine months, Israel and the Iran-led axis of resistance maintained a precarious balance of mutual deterrence. Now that balance has collapsed.

A Likely Story

Iraq: The Battle to Come

ISIS’s military defeat, which Western officials believe will come sometime later this year or early next, will hardly put an end to the conflicts that gave rise to the group.

Iran's Gambit in Syria

The US strike in Syria does nothing so much as complicate an already explosive situation—with Iran in what may be the most critical position of all.

The Kurds vs. the Borders

Paradoxically, to guarantee their autonomy—and their survival—the Kurds may end up needing the Sykes-Picot borders just as much as their old overlords did.

Jordan on the Edge

Jordan is less concerned about vast numbers of Syrian refugees than an alarming rise in domestic extremism.

Why Belgium?

Why has Belgium become such a focus of European jihad? And why has it been so difficult for Belgian authorities to contain the problem?

The New Power in Iraq

The tragedy of post-2003 Iraq is that its population, whether Shias, Sunnis in Daesh-controlled areas, or Kurds under Barzani, continue to rely on the same repressive modes of government.

Can the Kurds Break Away?

How important is Iraq’s stability to the Kurds’ own security and long-term aims?

Sectarian Conflict in Bahrain

Part of what makes the current situation in Bahrain so disturbing is that the regime has succeeded in replacing the narrative of a peaceful movement for reform with an altogether different one: that the country’s majority Shia are intent on driving the Sunnis off the island and handing the country over to Iran. Although last year’s protests were led by predominantly Shia opposition groups, Bahrain’s urban populations have long been mixed and the uprising also drew Sunnis dissatisfied with how the country was run. But as I witnessed during a recent five day visit, by mobilizing Sunnis against Shia protesters on the claim the latter are manipulated by a predatory Iran, the regime has made Shia-Sunni hostility the conflict’s overriding theme.

Barricaded in Bahrain

On November 23, the government of Bahrain was in an uncharacteristically welcoming mood. The occasion was the release of a report about its handling of last spring’s popular uprising. Since the report had been requested—and paid for—by the government itself, officials were expecting a few minor criticisms. Then, they reasoned, the country would move on. Things didn’t go according to plan. The room fell quiet as Cherif Bassiouni, the report’s chief author, said words like “rape” and “torture” to King Hamad, the ruler of Bahrain. He was clear that these abuses weren’t just random acts by a few bad apples. “A number of detainees were tortured,” he said, “which proved there was a deliberate practice by some.” For the first time—perhaps ever—an independent jurist standing before a Persian Gulf monarch publicly accused that monarch’s government of systematic abuse.

Bahrain Burning

Waiting for Baghdad

Iraq: The Impasse

Iraq’s Summer of Uncertainty

A scorching summer heat is settling on Baghdad. The streets are calm and traffic flows, slowed only by the multiple checkpoints, especially near bridges and government buildings. Given that the policemen on duty cast only a cursory glance at vehicles and their passengers, it is perhaps surprising there haven’t been more frequent bombings in recent weeks.

Iraq on the Edge

Iraq: A Bigger Threat Than Bombs

The horrific twin bombings in Baghdad on October 25 that killed over 150 people, including children in two daycare centers, and injured many more, could easily be seen as supporting the increasingly common contention that Iraq remains profoundly unstable. That such an attack could take place in the center of the capital might demonstrate that security forces under Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki are incapable of providing security; and that the United States will leave chaos in its wake when combat troops depart ten months from now. But the attacks must be seen in the perspective of deeper problems, even if the claim about Iraq’s instability is valid.